AWS Lambda vs Cloudflare Workers for a latency-sensitive API gateway. 200M requests/month, P99 target <50ms, currently on ECS Fargate.

Council notes

Evidence boundary

Observed from your filing

• AWS Lambda vs Cloudflare Workers for a latency-sensitive API gateway. 200M requests/month, P99 target <50ms, currently on ECS Fargate.

Assumptions used for analysis

• The API gateway primarily performs routing, auth, and lightweight transformation — not compute-heavy processing that would exhaust Workers CPU limits
• Backend services are accessible via public endpoints or can be exposed via Cloudflare Tunnel without prohibitive latency
• Traffic is predominantly US-centric, making the 10-25ms RTT estimate to us-east-1 representative
• The $8K/month cost ceiling is a hard constraint that disqualifies Lambda Provisioned Concurrency
• Current ECS Fargate can remain operational as a fallback during the 5-day migration window
• team size defaulted: standard team (5-10 engineers) (not_addressed)

Inferred candidate specifics

These details were introduced by the Council during analysis. They were not supplied in your filing.

• Deploy Cloudflare Workers as the API gateway using edge-compute + origin-fetch to existing AWS backends. Workers V8 isolates have zero cold starts (sub-1ms spin-up), edge execution adds <5ms, leaving ~45ms for origin fetch — US-East RTT of 10-25ms fits comfortably. Total cost: ~$500/month versus $6K Fargate (94% savings). Lambda is disqualified: Provisioned Concurrency for 770 peak concurrent instances costs $11K-13K/month (40-60% over $8K ceiling), and without it, Lambda P99 is 800ms — 16x the target. Migrate via Cloudflare DNS with percentage-based traffic splitting (10% → 50% → 100% over 5 days), keeping Fargate as fallback. Critical failure mode: if the gateway calls AWS VPC-internal services, cross-cloud RTT of 15-30ms leaves <20ms for backend processing. Mitigate with Cloudflare Tunnel or public endpoints, and validate backend processing time fits within the remaining budget before full cutover.
• Deploy a Cloudflare Workers proof-of-concept that proxies 3-5 representative API routes to the existing Fargate ALB, measure P99 end-to-end latency including origin fetch under synthetic load matching peak traffic patterns (770 concurrent requests), and validate that cross-cloud RTT + backend processing fits within the 50ms budget.
• Branch b003 had the highest confidence (0.82), survived 3 rounds of adversarial review including strengthening in rounds 1 and 2, named specific cost thresholds ($500/month vs $11-13K Lambda), specific latency breakdowns (sub-1ms isolate, <5ms edge, 15-30ms cross-cloud RTT), concrete failure modes (VPC access, backend processing budget), and a specific migration timeline. Reframe branches b006 and b007 raised valid strategic considerations but neither provided actionable recommendations.
• Hybrid Cloudflare Workers + Lambda (80/20 routing split)
• Killed in round 3. Adds Lambda cold start risk for 20% of traffic, increases operational complexity, and total cost of $7.2K/month approaches the ceiling without meaningful latency advantage over pure Workers.
• AWS API Gateway + Lambda@Edge + Global Accelerator (single-ecosystem approach)
• Killed in round 2. Global Accelerator adds significant cost ($0.025/GB + accelerator fees), Lambda@Edge pricing is higher per request at 200M/month scale, and multi-cloud operational overhead was overstated — Shopify runs Workers edge + AWS origin successfully with standard observability tooling.
• Valid strategic consideration (b006) but is a reframe, not an actionable recommendation. The 50ms P99 target and 200M req/month are stated constraints — if most users are near us-east-1, the Workers approach still wins on cost and cold start elimination.

Inferred specifics table

Structured audit rows for Council-added details. Synthetic basis means the detail was introduced by analysis, not supplied by the filing.

Unknowns blocking a firmer verdict

• Actual backend processing time for AWS-internal services is unknown — if complex queries take >20ms, the 50ms P99 budget may be violated when combined with 15-30ms cross-cloud RTT
• Whether the API gateway requires access to AWS VPC-private services (DynamoDB, ElastiCache, SQS) is unstated — this determines whether Cloudflare Tunnel or public endpoints are needed, adding latency and complexity
• The $500/month Workers cost estimate depends on CPU duration staying low; compute-heavy gateway logic (auth, transformation, validation) could push Workers Unbound costs higher
• Geographic distribution of users is unknown — the 10-25ms RTT estimate assumes US-centric traffic hitting US edge nodes; global traffic patterns could differ
• Cost numbers for Lambda Provisioned Concurrency are model-estimated, not sourced from AWS pricing calculator with the specific runtime/memory configuration

Operational signals to watch

Branch battle map